Rob's Super Bowl Pick

I suppose I could keep this one short and sweet because as you know if you keep up with the blog, I picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl before the playoffs started. However, I have picked against the Cardinals in EVERY round of the playoffs this year. And needless to say, in every round I was wrong. I guess that means I have two options: (1) I pick the Steelers and they win and it looks like the no brainer because I picked the favorite and well I had to be right about the Cardinals at some point right or (2) Pick the underdog Cardinals thereby switching my original pick that has made it this far and risk diminishing the integrity of my blog by picking a team simply because they are the underdog and they have proven me wrong for three consecutive weeks.

I choose...option #1!!!!! To be quite honest with you, at this point I have developed quite a chip on my shoulder towards the Cards (that is despite the presence of former FSU greats: "The Quan" and D. Dockett or D squared as he has requested). I mean these guys were the sexy pick for the last few years and they just kept coming up short. After a while they became like the Saints, except they weren’t my home team so I felt quite comfortable laughing it up at their misgivings. Then there was the mistreatment of "The Quan" who by my account is the spark that led to the "New Cards" and this new era that they have no embarked upon (and the continued mistreatment of The Quan even after he has done his best Rod Tidwell impresronation . Combine those things with the fact that the Cards have now made a fool out of me by beating the Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles after I picked all three to take the Cards down and you have a team that I am genuinely starting not to like. But, once again for the purposes of maintaining the integrity of my blog I will get away from talking about who I do and do not like and get to the nitty gritty, the match-ups, the numbers and why I think the steelers will win and furthermore, how I think they will put it off (this factor is kind of important to me, if you look back at the Eagles-Cards game I feel like I had that one to a T except the Eagles defense took a little longer to stabalize and furthermore I didn’t account for a Joe Montana like drive by Kurt Warner in the 4th quarter and a blown call by the refs on the Eagles last drive). So here it goes as Rob Moore see it:

First, lets talk about the defenses. Recently, a lot of the Cards fans or bandwagoners have been attempting to make the argument that there defense is underrated and that the Steelers defense is not that much better. I will give you the first, however, I have to stop you on the second because the Cards D is no where near as good as the Steelers. Yes they have a ton of high draft picks back there, enough to make a college all star team (see: Rodgers-Cromartie, Berry, Rolle, Dockett, Dansby, and Branch) with the veteran Adrian Wilson, but c’mon the Steelers D they are not. These guys burst on to the scene in the playoffs by shutting down the Falcons run game and then picking off Delhomme 5 times, and finally by shutting down Westbrook. People are now comparing them to the Colts D from their Super Bowl run where the D didn’t seem to show up until it mattered. But here are the facts: The Colts kind of got lucky that year in that Peyton orchestrated a masterful come back against the Pats and then the D didn’t have much of a challenge in the Rex Grossman led Bears on a horribly rain drenched field in the Super Bowl. Furthermore, in Round 1 the Cards did what I had been waiting on everyone to do which was commit to stopping Turner and force the Rookie to beat you. In Round 2, the same thing. Force Delhomme to beat you. Simply put, post-op he just can’t, maybe Steve Smith can, but double him and Jake just can’t get it done anymore. Then looking at Round 3, Donovan put up 375, I repeat 375 and possibly would have posted a 400+ game and a victory if the refs wouldn’t have swallowed their whistle on the intentional PI on that 4th down pass. So bottom line is the Cards have a solid serviceable defense and they have been really good in the playoffs. However, the Steelers have a dominant defense. The type of defense that, much like a prize fighter, knocks you down and leaves you trying to remember where you are when you get up. The fact remains that the Cards have to be able to take the Steelers punches, because they will get hit. Whether its Boldin or Fitz catching a slant and getting introduced to Troy P. or Ryan Clark. Or its James Harrison leveling Warner, somebody will be hit and hit hard. The fact remains that they will have to be able to get up and swing back if they hope to win this game. Keeping with the fight comparison, I think they will be able to get up and keep swinging but eventually I see them getting knocked out.

Another thing that is bothering me is this idea that the Cardinals have learned to run the ball all of a sudden. No! The Cardinals have committed to run the ball. There is a difference. The Cardinals have dusted "The Edge" off (is it me or do the Cards if nothing else win the award for best nicknames in a SB) and up’ed his carries during the playoff. However, the Cards are avg’ing 3.1 yards per carry in the playoffs which is the same as the 3.1 yards per carry avg’ed during the season. That coupled with the fact that they haven’t faced a defense like the Steelers in the playoffs leads me to believe that their running game won’t be much of a factor in this game.
Some of the factors that I think will play a role in this game are (1) The injuries to Hines Ward and whatever injury there may be to Big Ben (they are being pretty tight lipped about his x-rays)- if one or both of these guys are severely slowed down or don’t play at all, it may be lights out for the Steelers (2) Don’t underestimate Wisenhunt’s vendetta/history with the Steelers- They went with Tomlin over him giving him incentive and furthermore the Steelers haven’t changed much since he was there so he may be able to make some good adjustments and (3) the unforseen injury– did you watch the Ravens game? The Steelers are blood thirsty, they try to take heads off. Look for the Cards to take some shots as well and a guy or two to not finish this one. For the sake of a good game I hope this doesn’t happen. (4) Last but not least, TURNOVERS are always an issue in big games. They change field position and lead to easy quick points. Big Ben has a propensity to turn it over when he is under pressure so look for this, but the same is true for Warner so it depends on what QB cracks under the pressure (the edge here definitely goes to Warner- see Big Ben’s first SB numbers).

So all in all, advantage Steelers. But this should be a good one. Not the Panthers Steelers but a good one none the less.

Senior Bowl Report

Senior Bowl Report

1/24/09

Me and a few of my friends are putting together a college post season bowl wrap up which will hopefully be interactive and allow people to get on here and represent their conference and make an argument for which is best. Look for that early next week as along with my Super Bowl picks. On to what is currently on my brain: The Senior Bowl. I’ll go position by position grouping the OG and C’s together.

Quarterbacks: I feel like Rhett Bomar showed himself to be the clear favorite in this category. Watching the Senior Bowl practices on the NFL Network, it is easy to not pay much attention to who is throwing the passes or under center unless they make a mistake. Bomar’s name was rarely called for making an error and the analysts said he made the best NFL caliber throws all week. Contrast that with Graham Harrell who consistently botched the center-quarterback exchange all week. Fast forward to the game and these two quarterbacks stood out the most again. Rhett Bomar showed that he could make all the throws. However, he showed some questionable decision making when he took a sack and fumble which turned into a touchdown. He should have gotten rid of the ball on this play. Graham Harrell struggled and demonstrated that he doesn’t possess the arm strength to make the NFL throws. A good number of his throws ended up in the dirt. He also through what should have been an interception to Alphonse Smith (a guy I’m high on at corner but we’ll get to this later) and one later to Lankster. The analysts were also pretty high on John Parker Wilson. Me, not so much. I mean he can make the throws…within like 15 yards. That’s not good enough of the next level. There was a long pass that he threw during the third quarter which was one of the worst wounded ducks I have seen in a while. So needless to say I wasn’t overly impressed with him, but I think he could be a solid career back up quarterback. Central Arkansas QB Nathan Brown looked pretty good as well. His game numbers speak for themselves. Now the last quarterback I’ll mention is Pat White. He is like a Drew Brees type quarterback (in size and stature). Everybody is going to say that he is too small to be affective and they will say he is so much athletic that he should look at another position. But, only Rhett Bomar showed the ability to make better throws or more arm strength in the actual game itself. He made some long throws down the field, showed that he can still run, and then even made some solid throws over the middle on some square in routes. And to top it off, he was the games MVP!

Running Backs: ANDRE BROWN! I can’t say his name enough. Watching Fla. St. football for the last four years I saw this guy a lot. He beat us up pretty bad a few times. He is big and fast and that is a devastating combination that goes over very well on the next level. Backs aren’t able to show too much in Senior Bowl practices other than their ability to block or catch out the backfield, but Andre Brown made a nice showing in the game itself. He had a few nice long runs and then a few nice catches out of the backfield. But, what I was most impressed with was his ability to convert in short yardage situations. There was a 4th and 1 and a goal line situation. Kory Sheets out of Purdue made a solid showing as well. He had a nice touchdown run that got called back as well a nice kick off return. As a Saints fan I’ll say he looked Pierre Thomas-esq in that he doesn’t have break away speed, but he looks serviceable at RB on every level. Jeremiah Johnson out of Oregon also looked impressive on a drive to close out the first half where he had more than half of the yards on the drive. Rashad Jennings out of Liberty had a few flashes on some of his carries. At the FB position the one player that stood out to me was Quinn Johnson out of LSU. He is the type of fullback that does it all. At 6-1 262, with soft hands and the ability to convert in short yardage, I like what he brings to the table.

Wide Receiver: Wide Receiver is one of the positions where you probably pick up more from practice than you do from the actual game because a lot of times there just aren’t enough balls to go around during the game. With that said Juaquin Iglesias mad e a nice showing in the senior bowl. He demonstrated good hands during practice, and had the most productive game of all of the wrs. Ramses Barden out of Cal Poly also stood out during practice and made a few nice catches during the game. The 6’6 220 wide receiver kind of reminds me of Marques Colston (another shameless Saints plug). I also really like Patrick Turner as a big target. Mike Wallace showed his speed on a long TD catch from Pat White. Brian Robiskie demonstrated that he is in a league of his own in terms of being mentally prepared to play at the next level. For what he lacks in athleticism he makes up for in this preparedness. Mike Thomas out of Arizona and Derek Williams out of Penn State showed themselves to be of the Santana Moss mold. Small wr’s with good hands and route running and punt return abilities.

Tight End: I’ll keep this one short. Shawn Nelson. If you didn’t know him before google him. Or you can youtube him pancaking Maualuga.

Guard/Center: Two names stuck out to me here this past week. Max Unger out of Oregon and Alex Mack from Cal. I like these two a lot, but you can’t turn your nose up at Herman Johnson- the man is large, plain and simple. With defensive tackles get bigger and bigger who can’t use a 380lbs guard out front. Antoine Caldwell and Eric Wood also had their moments in individual drills and during the game.

Tackle: Michael Oher was the premier tackle in this game to me. Throughout practice he showed that he was the best tackle in this game and the game it self was no different. However he has some consistency issues that he needs to work through. Phil Loadholt from Oklahoma also showed some promise with his long arms and large size. Tackle William Beatty from Connecticut also showed some promise.

Defensive Tackle: BJ RAJI BJ RAJI BJ RAJI- I wish he could end up in a Saints uniform. I didn’t hear his name called much in the game, but he was dominant in practice all week. Peria Jerry also demonstrated what he was capable of forcing a fumble in the game. And if you watched any of the practices, you were treated to Ziggy Hood out of Mizzou and his patented spin move.

Defensive End: Robert Ayers looked good all week and again in the actual game forcing a fumble on a sack which ultimately led to 7 pts. David Veikune out of Hawaii was solid all week as well.

Linebacker: The trio from SC performed well as expected. Maualuga blew up a screen pass and forced a fumble. Matthews and Cushing had a good week of practice as well. Clint Sintim had some flashes during the week as well showing some speed of the edge. He may make a good edge rusher in a 3-4 scheme. Nic Harris showed the ability to move from the Safety position down to the Linebacker spot.

Defensive Back: Ellis Lankster and Alphonso Smith were solid at the corner. Lankster had a nice pick and Smith should have had one. Keenan Lewis out of New Orleans also had a strong week of practice. Louis Delmas and Patrick Chung showed some good potential flying up in run support and making some big hits. The jury is still out on there ability to play solid over the top coverage. This in contrast to Will Moore who had a very poor showing at the Safety position in the senior bowl.

For a good day by day analysis of the rise and fall of players draft stock check out:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/football/nfl/01/21/senior.bowl.day3/index.html

Rob's Picks: Championship Round

Championship Round Picks

Philadelphia v. Arizona

Ok, I will admit, I’m a little torn in this one. I have consistently picked against the Cardinals and listed all the reasons why they can and will loose in the first two rounds and they have consistently proved me wrong. But let me rant for a second here about the Cards second round victory. First of all, why did the Panthers on insist on trying to get pressure on Warner with their front four when an obvious key to victory against the Cards is putting significant pressure on Warner and getting him out of his rhythm. Another question I have is why the Panthers insisted on single covering the only real offensive threat for the Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald. With a blessing from god, that being an injury to Anquan Bolding (henceforth forward referred to as “The Quan” due to my allegiance to The Florida State University), the Panthers seemingly only had to worry about blitzing the heck out of Warner and double covering Fitzgerald. The Panthers’ John Fox didn’t seem to figure out this concept until the second, but by this time it was too late and the lead was insurmountable. And lastly, if it is okay to pull D. McNabb, how many turnovers are necessary before its okay to pull Delhomme (I vote, sometime before the third or fourth TO when he was standing on the sideline looking at the scoreboard looking like the poster child for the “So You Had a Bad Day” commercial), or at least resort to running (there was a point in the game where Delhomme had three turnovers and it wasn’t too late for them to turn around and start handing it off) the ball. After all that is what got you here. But after all should we really be that surprised by Delhomme’s performance after the performance he turned in against the Raiders defense. I’m pretty sure the Cards checked out that game film.

But anyway, back to the subject at hand, the Cardinals have shown that they can play defense, force turnovers, and run the ball if they need to. And now they have worked their way to home field advantage in the NFC Championship game. So the question becomes, will I dare to pick against the Cards for a third straight week???

And the answer is….YES; I’m going with the Philadelphia Eagles. Call it stubbornness, call the Eagles my team of destiny this year, call it ignorance, call it whatever you like but that’s my pick. I know the Eagles blew the Cards in Arizona earlier this season, but you can throw that game out of the window. Andy Reid did. He didn’t even allow the team to watch the game film from the earlier match-up. But even with the new look Arizona Cardinals playing the way they are, I think the Eagles will win and here is why:

Experience. The Eagles have been here before. Four times in a row between 2001and 2004. This will be a huge factor. The Cardinals will come out excited with the crowd advantage, but the Eagles won’t be shocked by this b/c they know what to expect. They should be able to ride the initial wave of excitement and pandemonium, and slowly but surely quiet the crowd with a steady dose of what we know as the blitz-happy Eagles defense.

The blitz. The Eagles blitz early and often. It’s just what they do. They should be the first team in the playoffs to ruffle Warner’s’ feathers, and get him out of his rhythm. Once this happens, the Cardinals formula success will come into question.

Baltimore v. Pittsburgh

These two teams will likely supply us with a battle for the ages. Every time these two teams play there are a ton of hard hits and big plays made by both defenses. These two teams met twice during the regular season in two very close and hard fought battles with the Pittsburgh Steelers winning both match-ups. The Steelers won these match-ups by a combination of 7 points. Now it is very hard to beat a team three times in one season but I’m going to go with the Steelers again in this one and here are my reasons why:

My first reason is special teams. The Steelers have Santonio Holmes who proved to be a big factor last week when he tied the game at 7 and shifted the momentum back to Pittsburgh with a big kick return. This will be a big factor because in close hard fought defensive struggles such as these, field position will likely be a big factor.

The running game. Going back to week 17, Mike Tomlin made a risky but very smart and calculated move when he decided to play his starters. Tomlin’s hope was to re-establish the running game and prove to himself and his team that they were still a smash mouth team that can run the football (at one point they started to appear to be a team that was overly reliant on the passing game and this was causing a ton of sacks b/c they fielded a o-line which strength lied on the run blocking). He was successful. Parker ran for over 120 yards that day and then he ran for a season high 146 yards in the first playoff game. That week 17 game may prove to be a defining moment in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Super Bowl run. I believe that the Steelers will be able to run the ball this week against the Ravens just like the Titans were able to early with Chris Johnson. I feel like this will be a huge factor in the Steelers victory.

The final and deciding factor in this last game will be the quarterback play from both teams. The Steelers again have the definite edge in this area. Up to this point Joe Flacco has done enough to get by. The Steelers defense will force him to do more than just get by. They will shut down the running game which has only been serviceable to this point and put a lot of pressure on Flacco to make plays. I predict that he will eventually crumble under this pressure, much the way Roethlisberger did in his first AFC Championship game. Roethlisberger on the other hand has been here and done this before. He has played the Ravens before and he will be prepared.

These major factors will all play into the Steelers victory. Another important factor is the fact that the Ravens are tired. They have been playing for 18 straight weeks because they lost their bye week to Hurricane Gustav. They have a ton of injuries and players that are banged and bruised up. Suggs will go but he is hurt. Samari Rolle on the other hand will not be playing and the Eagles will miss him in that secondary.

Rob Moore's Round 2 Playoff Picks

Moore Rants

Playoff Predictions Round 2

AFC

Baltimore v. Tennessee

I think this is a game that probably should be the AFC Championship game. I think that it has the potential to be that good of a match up. These two defenses both swarm to the ball hit hard and force turnovers (see Ed Reed Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin). This game really could go either way especially given that the Ravens led through much of the first match up before Collins engineered a game winning drive (the drive was extended by 15 yard illegal blow to the helmet penalty). The Ravens defense actually looked like the better unit until that final drive holding, Tennessee to about 200 yards of total offense. Another factor that may tip the scales in the Ravens favor is that this game was only Flacco’s fourth career game. At this point in the season he should be more productive then he was at week four. But in the words of the great FSU alum (this is the first of what will become many shameless FSU plugs) Lee Corso “Not So Fast My Friend!” I still think the Titans take this one and hear is why:

First, the Titans are playing this game and home. Home field advantage in the playoffs is a huge advantage. With a defense like the Titans, they should be able to force Flacco into some turnovers and get the crowd into it early which will put a lot of pressure on the rookie quarterback.

Second, and some what connected is that Joe Flacco will likely struggle in this game. In the first round of the playoffs on the road in Miami, the Ravens offensive line completely dominated and gave him a ton of time. Flacco still only turned in a mediocre performance in that game. Also, the strength of the o-line opened up the run game further strengthening the passing game. This week Flacco, will be against Haynesworth and the Titans d-line. He likely will not have as much time as he did against the Dolphins which will likely lead to a costly error or two that should swing the game to the Titans.

Note: this just in Mawae will not play. This is huge in terms of how they cover the pressure that the Ravens will bring. Mawae is the anchor of that strong o-line .

San Diego v. Pittsburgh

I’m definitely going with Pittsburgh in this one, but I won’t be as emphatic about a San Diego loss as I was last week, because they made me look pretty bad. The pass rush was back last week, even without Shawne Merriman and they got after Manning and made me look completely wrong. A much maligned defense that gave up a ton of yards got after it, mixed up there blitzes and showed something. However, LT was in rare playoff form again (on the sideline watching- at least no helmet this year; I really feel bad for this guy but that’s another blog for another day) and Darren Sproles was covered in ice all week recovering from the best performance that his small frame could put out. That means that either Michael Bennett takes some of the load this week and shows us some things or the offense is going to be all on Phillip Rivers shoulders… And I have two things to say about that: (1) you probably don’t want to put the game in the hands of a back who hasn’t played in a game in about a year and (2) coming in and trying to chuck it around and throw 40 passes is not the way to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers with Troy P. prowling around in the secondary. So as you can see I’m pretty high on the Steelers in this one, my only hesitation is that if they can’t establish a run game, which they struggled to do this season with the injuries to Willie Parker and Mendenhall, then their offense will begin to look like the Colts offense did last week. And you saw what the Chargers D was able to accomplish in that game. With that said, I’m still going with my Super Bowl pick in the Pittsburgh Steelers.

NFC

Arizona v. Carolina

Again we have the Cardinals a team that made me look bad last week. I ranted about how they didn’t have a strong defense, couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t run, and would be shut down by the Falcons pass rush. They proceeded to dust off Edgerrin James and pound him establishing the run, score nine points on defense, stuff Michael Turner, and shut down John Abraham. Should we just charge it to the home field advantage? While I’m sure that stadium was pretty rowdy considering how long its been since they saw a playoff win, I think not. I think that Ken Wisenhunt showed us something about himself as a coach. Wisenhunt showed us that he is the type of coach that is willing to adjust his game plan to attack the weaknesses of the opposing team. This bodes well for the Cards in the future, but sorry Cards fans, it won’t be enough to get the W on Saturday. The Cardinals offense is a little weaker with Anquan Boldin suffering from the hamstring injury and I look for the Panthers to do everything the Falcons couldn’t do. They Panthers have stronger defense than the Falcons across the board, position to position so I look for them to slow down the passing attack and shut down the running game. Also, The Panthers home field advantage in this game should be a big factor. I look for the Panthers to win this game by running the ball with Stewart and Williams and keep the Cards on the side line.

Philadelphia v. New York

I picked Philly to win this game at the start of the playoffs. I am going to stay with them for the integrity of this blog. I won’t back away from my pick. However, I’m a little worried and here is why. Last week Andy Reid Showed a commitment to the run, but the runs were telegraphed and the Eagles were ineffective at blocking these plays. If the Eagles can not establish some semblance of a running game, they will struggle in New York. Also, the Eagles struggled to protect McNabb from the blitz of the Vikings. He was forced to make a lot of check downs and hit the hot receiver, but he was getting knocked down on almost every pass play. The Eagles can not win a game performing like this on offense. The Giants offense with three healthy running backs and Eli Manning at quarterback will score more points than Minnesota did and put more pressure on the Eagles defense. Another problem is that both Donovan McNabb and David Ackers traditionally struggle in Giants Stadium. This is bad news for the Eagles who relied heavily on both in Round 1. However, I still feel comfortable going with the Eagles in this one and here is why:

Brian Westbrook. Westbrook had 200 yards of total offense the last time these two teams met and he showed us last week that he is capable of breaking a big play at any time. In a defensive struggle he becomes the ex-factor. We know Spagnuolo is a great coordinator, but since he has been out on the interview circuit, I wouldn’t be surprised if game planning for Westbrook wasn’t the only thing on his mind. Further, Justin Tuck is slowed down by an injury which should affect their defense as well.

Look for this one to come down to the wire and come down to one of the quarterbacks trying to engineer a last minute drive with their wide receiver-less offenses. There will be a lot of check downs and screen passes in this one.

Note: I was raised a Giants fan and still consider to be Super Bowl 25 to be the greatest Super Bowl of all time and Lawrence Taylor to be the greatest defender to ever play the game. I will be cheering for the Giants this Sunday.

Rob Moore's Round 1 Playoff Picks

Moore Rants

Playoff Predictions

AFC Wild Card Round

Indianapolis v. San Diego
I’ve got the Colts beating the Chargers in this game. While the Chargers are winners of four straight and every game that they have played in the last month has been essentially a playoff game, the Colts are winners of a league leading nine straight games which included an impressive win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. In this game I feel like Indy is really just the better team across the board and frankly we all know that San Diego is lucky to even be in the playoffs. If it weren’t for the fact that the Broncos choked harder than Nick Anderson at the free throw line in the 1995 NBA Finals, San Diego wouldn’t even be in the playoffs. But, the fact still remains that the Chargers made it so we have to give this game some analysis:

While I could sit and talk about the Chargers offense for a while and how great a season Phillip Rivers has had and the fact that Landanian Tomilinson looked really good against Denver last Sunday night, I think the real key to this game lies in the Chargers porous pass defense. The Chargers ranked second to last in pass defense this year and they desperately miss the pass rushing abilities of Sean Merriman. That looks to be a recipe for disaster when going against the league MVP and picture of consistency, Peyton Manning in the first round. That combined with the Colts sixth ranked pass defense that will get after Phillip Rivers all day should be enough to put the Colts in the second round of the Playoffs.

Baltimore v. Miami
The Miami Dolphins are one of this years best stories with a turn around that brought them from 1-15 to 11-5. This will be a great game and what I think will be the most competitive game of the weekend. Two tough defenses going against strong running games with serviceable quarterback play (with the edge at QB going to the Phins). You’ve got Joey Porter on one side of the ball and Ray Lewis on the other. There will be a lot of trash talking, chest pounding, and hard hitting in this game. As my high school football coach said, “Throw your cds and dvds out the window fellas, this is gonna be a game to remember.” (sorry I couldn’t resist that one, and yes I’m still to this day as confused as to what that meant as you are right now). But anyway, I digress. Cutting to the chase, I’m going with the Ravens in this one and here is why:

I think the Ravens have the stronger of the two defenses, and I think the Ravens defense is built to stop an offense just like the Dolphins. (i.e. hard nose run game with short ball control passing attack). Just a quick look at the stars on both defenses shows an edge in favor of the Ravens. While the Dolphins had Joey Porter who had a defensive MVP type season, Ed Reed’s league leading nine interceptions was only one part of the Ravens impressive defense. The Ravens still line up with Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs in their front seven, both of whom are having a great year and will bring a ton of pressure at Chad Pennington. Furthermore, this Ravens D should be able to stuff the power running game of the Dolphins which only amassed 71 yards rushing in their first meeting this season (the Phins have come a long way since then, but one thing that we know from that day is that the wildcat formation does not work against the Ravens). Furthermore given Pennington’s weak arm the Ravens will be able to crowd the line of scrimmage and commit to stopping the run and eliminating yards after the catch which should put an end to a lot of the Dolphins long drives.

With all of that said, I think this is one of those games that will boil down to turnovers, field position and special teams. And factoring in these elements I give the nod to the Ravens because I see them being able to force some turnovers from Dolphins offense by getting pressure on Pennington and forcing him into some bad throws (Pennington’s suspect arm strength will haunt him against a swarming defense like the Ravens which needs the threat of the long ball to back them up and create space for the shorter passing game). So I’m going with the Ravens, but don’t sleep, although Flacco has the stronger arm, he is still a rookie and it’s always possible he could revert back to his early season form and turn the ball over and then we may be looking at the Phins advancing to round two. But don’t count on it because I think Flacco has put those days behind him.

NFC Wild Card Round

Atlanta v. Arizona
I’m going to go with the Falcons in this one. Although the Cardinals won their final game against the Seahawks last week, they have backed into the playoffs for the most part while the Falcons have finished strong winning their last three. I’m going to go with the Falcons for these reasons: the pass rush, the strength of the NFC South v. the weakness of the NFC West, and finally the running game. The Falcons win all of these battles by a large margin and that should ultimately tip the scales.

For starters, the Falcons have employed a very physical brand of football under first year head coach Mike Smith and that has led to a great pass rush with 34 total sacks ranking them 11th in the league (John Abraham is leading the team with 16.5 sacks). And as we know, the Achilles heel of Kurt Warner is his inability to escape the pocket and his propensity to take too many sacks and fumble the ball once he is hit. This is ultimately what led to his demise in NY and in STL. Look for the Falcons under Mike Smith to bring the funk early and often. (noted here is that the Falcons have struggled in yards given up to opposing passing defenses which may hurt them against the pass happy Cards, but if they can force turnovers, i.e. fumbles from Kurt Warner they should still come out victorious).

The second factor that I’m pointing to is the strength of the conferences that these two teams played in. The Falcons played high intensity football all season long in the NFC South where every team was at or above .500 making every conference game like a playoff game. That means that this game against Arizona will not be anything that rookie quarterback Matt Ryan is startled by. Arizona on the other hand has coasted all season long playing in a division where at 9-7 they were the only team to finish above .500. Finishing 6-0 in their division means that they only beat three non-divisional opponents, only two of which finished over .500 (Miami early in the season and a mid-season victory over Dallas).

Philadelphia v. Minnesota
Here we have another team that is lucky to be here in the Vikings (Giants benched their starters in the second half and the Bears folded in their final game) and a Philadelphia Eagles team that is surging at the right time. In short I think the Eagles pass rush overwhelms the inexperienced and turnover prone Tavaris Jackson. Adrian Peterson will have his moments at some points during this game but overall the Eagles defense is getting after it right now and an offense that struggles to score points as much the Vikes won’t be able to handle what the Eagles bring in the form of defense. And as the Eagles offense has been doing of late, they will do enough to compliment the defense and advance to the second round.