Okay, I know I haven’t blogged about B-ball this season (with the exception of a post on the Hornets after the Tyson Chandler trade), but it’s the NBA Finals folks, so I have to weigh in and give my two cents. So here it goes:
Initially, my head says the Lakers and my heart says the Magic. I’m not the biggest Kobe Bryant fan, or Laker fan in general. Never have been. And the Magic bring a great story to the table: a young team riding a waive of emotion coupled with a whole lot of talent and offensive fire power. On top of that, the Magic are fun to watch and they bring an infectious spirit to the competition that makes fans enjoy watching them.
However, you can't just be a “fan” when making these types of predictions. You have to step back and analyze. And after analyzing the match-ups in this NBA Finals I predict that the Lakers will win this series in 7 games.
The Front Court
The front court match ups in this series are really important, because the key player for the Orlando Magic is Center Dwight Howard. How the Los Angeles Lakers handle Dwight Howard offensively and defensively will go a long way in determining how this series plays out. If the Lakers get Dwight Howard in early foul trouble, it will clear up the lane for Kobe to drive, and create space for Gasol to work in the low post. This will also give Bynum a much easier time on the boards because the 6'11 Orlando Magic PF, Rashard Lewis, has little interest in rebounding. Also, getting Howard in foul trouble eliminates him from the offensive end where he also presents a large problem for the Lakers. While Bynum and Gasol match up with Howard much better than Varejo and Ilgauskus did in the Eastern Conference Finals, they still will not be able to match his strength and athleticism. However, they may have enough fouls between them (and other Laker big men off the bench- Odom/Walton) to slow Howard down and force him to hit free throws which is something he isn’t very comfortable with (59.4 % on the season).
The Lakers will also have a tough time matching up with Rashard Lewis with Gasol or Bynum. Lewis may try to get off to a strong start early, before the Lakers go to Odom off of the bench who will match up much better against him. If the Lakers play Gasol and Odom the majority of the time in the front court they will have solid match-ups offensively and defensively that even out the scales enough for Kobe to put in work from the back court and tilt the scales in their favor.
At the small forward the Lakers are going with Trevor Ariza and he will be matching up with Hedo Turkoglu. While the Hedo Turkoglu will probably put up more points than Ariza, Ariza will slow down Turkoglu enough and bring other intangibles to make him a valuable asset in this series (see late games steals in the Denver series). Turkoglu will not be able to have his way with Ariza like he did with the 6'2 Delonte West in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Back Court
The back court is where things tilt in favor of the Lakers. The Kobe Bryant Courtney Lee match up is almost laughable and surely Mickael Pietrus will spend the majority of the game matched up with Kobe just like he did Lebron. And just like the Lebron match-up, Pietrus can only hope to slow Kobe down. Kobe will ultimately be the difference maker in this series because he is the only player with any experience as an NBA Finals starter where his team relied on him to carry them. Kobe has been here and done this before and now he is playing to solidify his legacy. I think ultimately that fire burning inside of him is enough to give him the killer instinct that the Lakers have been lacking in the playoffs.
The point guard match up between D. Fish and Skip To My Lou (Raefer Alston) is fairly even. These are two crafty veteran point guards that can knock down open jumpers and take you off the dribble when necessary. One thing is for sure though, Phil Jackson will not allow Alston to stand flat footed behind the three point line and launch wide open threes. Alston will have to work harder than that in this series.
The Bench
The Lakers have a much stronger bench in this series. The Magic rely on Pietrus for most of their points of the bench and he becomes a starter for the most part when you look at minutes played. Based on that you can say that Jameer Nelson, if healthy, and Courtney Lee will be the majority of the Magic's bench production in terms of points. Other than that Anthony Johnson can steal some minutes at the point position and Marcin Gortat will come in for Dwight Howard. This bench pales in comparison when you look at the Lakers, who will bring in Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmer for some good solid minutes of points and outside shooting off the bench. The Lakers will also bring Luke Walton and Lamar Odom in the front court. Both of these players play solid all around basketball and this has the Lakers going 9 deep which is not common in basketball today.
And this is why I have the Lakers in 7......weigh in tell me what you think!
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