The Non-Mock Draft Mock Draft

So lets cut to the chase. I have been MIA for a while. I let March Madness go by without any posts. I didn’t want to burden true hoop fans with my sub-par commentary on College Basketball. But its draft time so I’m back. I was all over the Senior Bowl and followed the combine pretty closely so I’ve got some strong opinions on who the top prospects are and where they should end up.

Before I talk about who should go where I’d just want to put it out there that the predicting the NFL Draft is an in-exact science at best. Its kind of like playing the stock market. You can put in all the work and research time that you want, but at the end of the day its possible that a monkey could throw darts at a dart board with random stock on it and choose a more valuable stock than you. Not probable, but possible.

With that said every year you read a ton of mock drafts done by people who claim to have insider information and claim to have watched a ton of film. They’ll tell you they talked to the players agents, shrinks and ex’s as if this means they know where the player will end up. The only problem with this whole scenario is that every year one player surprisingly falls and one or more teams trade back. These two occurrences have a tendency to shake up the whole first round and change everyone’s predictions of where players will end up. For example, last year the top ten picks were fairly predictable. People even knew that the Saints would likely try to trade up because of their interest in grabbing one of the two defensive tackles that would likely be off the board by the tenth pick. However, nobody knew who the Saints would trade with which ended up making all the difference in he world in terms of where players actually ended up. In that scenario, the Top 10 for the most part consisted of the players that everyone expected. However, the order in which these players were drafted and the teams that drafted them were anyone’s guess.

So, my point here is that as much as much fun as it is to speculate, its just that...speculation. You may guess right on a few picks here and there, but to even get the top 15 picks perfect would be like....well, like having a perfect March Madness bracket.

Okay, now that we have established that deciding who will be drafted where is pretty much a waste of time...Lets start wasting time:

(Note: My mock draft is as much about who I think a team should draft as much as it is about who they will draft)

1.) Detroit Lions: I think its obvious that this team has holes every where, but when you have the number one pick I think its safe to say that you should go with a guy that will be the corner stone of your franchise for the future. The major question here seems to be will the Lions pass on the pick, go with an OT, a or QB. My personal vote here is for an OT, preferably Jason Smith. Stafford seems to be pretty strong QB, but he was never as dominant in the SEC to me as a Peyton, an Eli, or even Matt Ryan in the ACC. And, in recent years OT has proven to be a fairly safe pick (see: Joe Thomas and Jake Long the last two years). Even Robert Gallery has shown himself to be a solid guard after failing at the Left Tackle position. And...well, we all know what happened the last time the Lions picked a QB top 5.

Update: Lions and Stafford nearing aggrement.

2.) St. Louis Rams: The Rams just let Orlando Pace go, so a left tackle makes sense for them here. Also, the Rams are on record as saying they do not want a QB so if the Lions don't go with Stafford, I don't see the Rams moving on him either. I think the Rams should definitely look to replace Pace with an OT. Jason Smith is the pick if the Lions take Stafford and Eugene Monroe if Smith goes at #1.

3.) Kansas City Chiefs: By all accounts, it appears that even after the Zach Thomas pick up, Aaron Curry is the no brainer here. He is probably the closest thing to a sure thing that exists in this years draft. However, if the Lions take my advice and take Smith and Monroe goes at #2, phones will ring off the hook with teams trying to move up and get Stafford. The Chiefs can move back a few spots and still pick up a LB.

Update: Chiefs interested in trading down.

4.) Seattle Seahawks: Okay it gets a little interesting here. If Stafford is still on the board (unlikely because if Detroit takes my advice and doesn’t draft him somebody likely trades up by now) then the Seahawks can take him as the QB of the future. If Stafford is gone, then the Seahawks can take Sanchez as the QB of the future. However, if Stafford is gone I believe that the Seahawks should take BJ Raji . This will keep Offensive lineman off of Lofa Tatupu at MLB. I think that is the smartest move that they can make here. But we have to wait and see if the marijuana allegations cause Raji to drop in the draft.

Update: Sports Illustrated apologizes for the Raji story.

5.) Cleveland Browns: If the Browns do in fact move Braylon Edwards before the draft, Michael Crabtree seems like the obvious pick here, especially given the departure of Kellen Winslow. However, Mangini is a defensive minded coach and may be looking for some LB’s to mold. If that is the case look for them to take Brian Orakpo as a 3-4 OLB.

Update: Cleveland not sold on Crabtree. Orakpo may be the pick now.

6.) Cincinnati Bengals: The need for an OT in Cincy is pretty strong. The Bengals haven’t been able to effectively protect Carson Palmer in recent years. If Eugene Monroe falls this far, the Bengals will undoubtedly take him. However, if Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe are gone this may be too early to reach on a troubled prospect like Andre Smith. If they choose not to reach on Andre Smith, they can always work on their porous defense and go after Brian Orakpo to add to their pass rush.

7.) Oakland Raiders: Kick Returner, Johnny Lee Higgins led the Raiders in receptions last year. The verdict: The Raiders need a WR. And everybody knows that Al Davis loves athletic WR’s so there is no way that Crabtree lasts past this pick. If he is gone, look for the Raiders to take Jeremy Maclin and give Jamarcus Russell a good young athletic target. Personally I don’t think you should draft a WR this high. You can get good WR value after the first round. I have a philosophy that the WR position in the NFL takes so much work, that the best receivers end up being the ones with the most incentive to work hard. (Comparing these wide outs and their draft position should serve as a solid evidence for my philosophy: Laverneus Coles, Peter Warrick, Robert Meachem, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, TO, Ocho Cinco, and Anquan Boldin).

8.) Jacksonville Jaguars: I look for the Jaguars to be our first trade of the day. The Jaguars have some holes to fill, but the eight spot is too early for them to address their major needs. They could go with Mark Sanchez here, but he would be the quarterback of the future and they may be able to win now if they address some of their holes. They could also go with Andre Smith here if he is still available and he would be an instant upgrade to the O-line. I think they should attempt to trade back and look at a RB to replace Fred Taylor (Chris “Beanie” Wells) or a LB to replace Mike Peterson. The Jets would likely be a willing participant in a trade at this spot.

9.) Green Bay Packers: Let me just start out as saying I am a Saints fan and I hope this doesn’t happen. But, the Malcolm Jenkins pick makes a lot of sense here with the aging Charles Woodson and Al Harris as the starting corners. However they may look to upgrade the pass rush here and take whoever remains of Orakpo, Brown, and Maybin (in that order).

10.) San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers need a dynamic WR. Isaac Bruce just won’t cut it. I think the 49ers go one more year with the three headed monster at QB, hoping that Alex Smith can get on track. They would like to draft Maclin with this pick to give Smith a legit target. However, if Maclin goes to the Raiders as I predict, Brian Orakpo would be a good addition to their defense.

11.) Buffalo Bills: After trading Peters, the Bills have a huge hole to fill. They practically have to take an OT here. Look for the Bills to take Michael Oher out of Ole Miss if the other top tackles are already off the board. This mostly depends on what Detroit decides to do at #1.

12.) Denver Broncos: The Broncos had a porous defense last season. They could not stop the run. This year the Broncos are moving to a 3-4 front. The Broncos should take Tyson Jackson here who is being touted by most as the only legit 3-4 Defensive End. The Broncos could go with Sanchez here, but the Broncos seemed to be intrigued by Orton and feel that he will excel in their offense.

13.) Washington Redskins: The word on the street is that Redskins owner Daniel Snyder likes Mark Sanchez. We all know that Snyder gets what he wants. It has been reported that the Redskins brass met with Sanchez over the weekend and had him meet with their coaching personnel. If Sanchez is here I think the Redskins take him. Personally I think the Skins could be looking for a pass rusher with this pick considering the loss of Jason Taylor. I say Everette Brown or Aaron Maybin here.

14.) New Orleans Saints: I’m way too excited about this pick. I think we can do a lot here and it’s a hard pick to mess up. I think inevitably there is a possibility that somebody of value falls to this spot. It could be Raji with the character concerns, Crabtree with the bad foot that kept him from running the 40, Jenkins with his slow 40 time, or Sanchez could still be available. If Raji falls, you have to take the big NT and put him next to your 3-tech Ellis which would remind many Saints fans of the days of Hand and Glover. If Crabtree falls, I’d be really tempted to take him just so you don’t end up like all those teams that passed on Randy Moss. I’d put Crabtree with Colston and figure the rest of the WR rotation out later. Somebody would be getting traded and/or cut though. Meachem would be at the top of the list. If Jenkins is there you snatch him. He is an instant upgrade to a Saints secondary that has never had a premier talent. With the scenario of Sanchez being available however, I think you trade this pick to the NY Jets or someone in similar situation and get back further in the 1st round. That allows you to hit our major need which is defense. At this point your best bet is LB or CB. At corner there will likely be Vontae Davis and at the OLB (Vilma has MLB on lock) spot you will likely have Cushing and Matthews to pick from. And my vote is to go with Clay Matthews. He has great NFL genes and demonstrated a great work ethic walking on at USC. At a minimum he will serve as an instant upgrade to the Special Teams unit.

15.) Houston Texans: I see the Texans taking a RB with this pick. I don’t think the Texans expected the 1200 yards that they got out of Slaton this past season. With that in mind I look for the Texans to take a big back in Chris Wells at this spot to compliment Slaton. But I don’t project Wells as a perinial pro-bowler and so I think this is too high of a spot to draft him. I think Brian Cushing would be a good pick up for the Texans who are pretty week at the Strong side Linebacker position. The Texans are also very thin at corner and may need to pick a player like Vontae Davis here.

16.) San Diego Chargers: The Chargers do not have many glaring holes. With that said, you can never have too many solid LB’s running a 3-4 defense. Rey Maualuga may be good fits here. However, If Tyson Jackson slips this far look for him to come off the board here.

17.) New York Jets: The Jets have two glaring needs created by the departure of Brett Favre and Laverneus Coles. The Jets may trade up to go after Sanchez. If the Jets do not trade up and go after Sanchez, I look for them to go after Josh Freeman. Their need at QB is that great. Personally I don’t feel like that truly addresses their concerns. The Jets have assembled a solid veteran core and Freeman is a QB of the future and may not be affective any time soon. If the Jets go wide receiver, Heyward-Bey is likely the WR that they will pick. As I said I see the Jets trading up with the Saints or possibly the Bills (if they are trying to leap frog the Skins) to get Sanchez. (Note: There are some whispers as Sanchez climbs the draft board, due to all his media hype, that the Seahawks are giving him some serious consideration as their QB of the future. If that is the case a team would have to move up to #2 or #3 to have a chance at Sanchez).

18.) Denver Broncos: The Broncos seem pretty stacked at the offensive skill positions so I wouldn’t look for them to take one of the available RBs (they already have Correll Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan, JJ Arrington and Selvin Young) or TEs (they already have Daniel Graham) here. They should probably try to address the Defense with this pick. They already have a nice start at LB with Elvis Dumervil, Jarvis Moss, Boss Bailey, Andra Davis, DJ Williams, and Wesley Woodyard so they should probably look Defensive line with this pick. The Broncos simply don’t have any 3-4 Defensive lineman (other than Tyson Jackson if they have drafted him at this point). The problem becomes that Peria Jerry is the best d-line prospect available at this point, but he is not a 3-4 NT. He is probably better suited to play the 3-tech. The same problem exists with 275 pound Tennessee Defensive End Robert Ayers who would probably fit better in a 4-3 defense. However, I think you can add a few pounds to this guy and let him get after it. He would be my pick here. The Broncos could also trade back and let somebody move up for one of the running backs or draft a replacement for the aging Champ Bailey (Vontae Davis).

Update: Broncos look to trade Jarvis Moss who is more of a 4-3 D-end.

19.) Tampa Bay Bucaneeers: The Bucs decided to clean house this off season. Part of the reason was because they had an older team that crumbled down the stretch, losing the last four games. This collapse was partially due to the Bucs inability to stop the run. A DT would seem like a good pick here, but the Bucs are looking for a NT because they already have Hovan at the 3-tech. The Bucs should look to the OLB position at this pick because they still need to replace June and Brooks. The Bucs should draft Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing depending on who is available (in that order). If the Saints and Texans have followed my recommendations however, DT Peria Jerry will likely be best pick for the Bucs.

20.) Detroit Lions: The Lions need help every where. If they go OT with the first pick, they should definitely go defense here. However, if they go with Stafford as the first pick, OT Michael Oher would probably be their target at this point. However it is quite possible (if the other 3 OT s go top ten that Oher will be gone at this point. If that is the case the Lions should go defense and draft Aaron Maybin to play the true DE spot ala Dwight Freeney.

21.) Philadelphia Eagles: If the Eagles don’t trade this pick for Anquan Boldin, which I happen to think is the smartest move, they will likely draft a RB to play alongside Westbrook. Chris “Beanie” Wells would be a good fit here as a thunder to Westbrook’s lightening. However, I have been high on Knowshon Moreno since he started at UGA and I personally don’t think Beanie is as much thunder as people would like to believe. Moreno would be the better fit in this offense so he would be my pick at this spot. The Eagles could also look to replace LJ Smith and draft Brandon Pettigrew at this spot.

22.) Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings desperately need a playmaker on offense besides Adrian Peterson. Percy Harvin was dynamic in college with the ball in his hands.

Update: Harvin was one of the players that failed Combine drug test.

23.) New England Patriots: Darius Butler. The Patriots have been really high on Butler, the only issue is whether or not they use this pick on him or try to wait until 34 to snatch him off the board.

24.) Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons really need defense. Last year they relied on their pass rush from John Abraham and their running game’s ability to keep the opposing offense on the sideline. That is why the Falcons probably won’t move on a TE at this spot. The Falcons should go with Evander “Ziggy” Hood at the DT to give Abraham some help rushing the passer.

25.) Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins desperately need a WR and a CB. With Vontae Davis still on the board and Bill Parcells negative feelings for drafting a WR this high (see I'm in good company), I think Davis is the pick here.

26.) Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens need to replace Bart Scott, but they won’t be able to find that replacement here. The Ravens would also like to trade this pick for Anquan Boldin, but they feel that the asking price of a 1st and a 3rd is too high so this seems like an appropriate spot for them to draft a strong athletic WR like Boldin. Darius Heyward-Bey would be a good pick here considering the strong workout that he had with Ravens' QB Joe Flacco.

27.) Indianapolis Colts: The Colts need a DT and a WR to replace Marvin Harrison. With the top three DTs off the board I think the Colts should go WR here and take Hakeem Nicks to play along side Reggie Wayne.

28.) Buffalo Bills: If the Buffalo Bills decide to go with OT Oher on their first pick TE Brandon Pettigrew is a great pick her to give Trent Edwards all the weapons necessary to take this offense to the next level. If the Bill don't get Oher with the first pick, likely go with OT Eben Britton.

29.) New York Giants: I believe the Giants will trade this pick for Braylon Edwards. However, if the Giants hold on to this pick look for them to replace Plaxico Burress with another big strong target in Kenny Britt. If Cleveland picks here I can see them drafting James Laurinitas or Alphonso Smith.

30.) Tennessee Titans: The Titans need a DT to replace Haynesworth. They wont find one of value here. They also need a WR, but they traditionally don’t take first round WRS. The Titans can upgrade the Offensive line and take OT William Beatty here or ILB James Laurinitas.

31.) Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals need a back to replace the aging Edgerin James. Chris “Beanie” Wells finally comes off the board here. Rumors of chronic foot problems and his inability to play in many of OSU’s big games cause him to drop this far in the draft.

32.) Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers biggest problem was their Offensive line. Look for the defending Super Bowl Champs to address this need by drafting OL Max Unger. This may be a little high for Unger so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Steelers go with William Beatty here or trade down a few spots to make this same selection.