Rob's Picks: Championship Round

Championship Round Picks

Philadelphia v. Arizona

Ok, I will admit, I’m a little torn in this one. I have consistently picked against the Cardinals and listed all the reasons why they can and will loose in the first two rounds and they have consistently proved me wrong. But let me rant for a second here about the Cards second round victory. First of all, why did the Panthers on insist on trying to get pressure on Warner with their front four when an obvious key to victory against the Cards is putting significant pressure on Warner and getting him out of his rhythm. Another question I have is why the Panthers insisted on single covering the only real offensive threat for the Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald. With a blessing from god, that being an injury to Anquan Bolding (henceforth forward referred to as “The Quan” due to my allegiance to The Florida State University), the Panthers seemingly only had to worry about blitzing the heck out of Warner and double covering Fitzgerald. The Panthers’ John Fox didn’t seem to figure out this concept until the second, but by this time it was too late and the lead was insurmountable. And lastly, if it is okay to pull D. McNabb, how many turnovers are necessary before its okay to pull Delhomme (I vote, sometime before the third or fourth TO when he was standing on the sideline looking at the scoreboard looking like the poster child for the “So You Had a Bad Day” commercial), or at least resort to running (there was a point in the game where Delhomme had three turnovers and it wasn’t too late for them to turn around and start handing it off) the ball. After all that is what got you here. But after all should we really be that surprised by Delhomme’s performance after the performance he turned in against the Raiders defense. I’m pretty sure the Cards checked out that game film.

But anyway, back to the subject at hand, the Cardinals have shown that they can play defense, force turnovers, and run the ball if they need to. And now they have worked their way to home field advantage in the NFC Championship game. So the question becomes, will I dare to pick against the Cards for a third straight week???

And the answer is….YES; I’m going with the Philadelphia Eagles. Call it stubbornness, call the Eagles my team of destiny this year, call it ignorance, call it whatever you like but that’s my pick. I know the Eagles blew the Cards in Arizona earlier this season, but you can throw that game out of the window. Andy Reid did. He didn’t even allow the team to watch the game film from the earlier match-up. But even with the new look Arizona Cardinals playing the way they are, I think the Eagles will win and here is why:

Experience. The Eagles have been here before. Four times in a row between 2001and 2004. This will be a huge factor. The Cardinals will come out excited with the crowd advantage, but the Eagles won’t be shocked by this b/c they know what to expect. They should be able to ride the initial wave of excitement and pandemonium, and slowly but surely quiet the crowd with a steady dose of what we know as the blitz-happy Eagles defense.

The blitz. The Eagles blitz early and often. It’s just what they do. They should be the first team in the playoffs to ruffle Warner’s’ feathers, and get him out of his rhythm. Once this happens, the Cardinals formula success will come into question.

Baltimore v. Pittsburgh

These two teams will likely supply us with a battle for the ages. Every time these two teams play there are a ton of hard hits and big plays made by both defenses. These two teams met twice during the regular season in two very close and hard fought battles with the Pittsburgh Steelers winning both match-ups. The Steelers won these match-ups by a combination of 7 points. Now it is very hard to beat a team three times in one season but I’m going to go with the Steelers again in this one and here are my reasons why:

My first reason is special teams. The Steelers have Santonio Holmes who proved to be a big factor last week when he tied the game at 7 and shifted the momentum back to Pittsburgh with a big kick return. This will be a big factor because in close hard fought defensive struggles such as these, field position will likely be a big factor.

The running game. Going back to week 17, Mike Tomlin made a risky but very smart and calculated move when he decided to play his starters. Tomlin’s hope was to re-establish the running game and prove to himself and his team that they were still a smash mouth team that can run the football (at one point they started to appear to be a team that was overly reliant on the passing game and this was causing a ton of sacks b/c they fielded a o-line which strength lied on the run blocking). He was successful. Parker ran for over 120 yards that day and then he ran for a season high 146 yards in the first playoff game. That week 17 game may prove to be a defining moment in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Super Bowl run. I believe that the Steelers will be able to run the ball this week against the Ravens just like the Titans were able to early with Chris Johnson. I feel like this will be a huge factor in the Steelers victory.

The final and deciding factor in this last game will be the quarterback play from both teams. The Steelers again have the definite edge in this area. Up to this point Joe Flacco has done enough to get by. The Steelers defense will force him to do more than just get by. They will shut down the running game which has only been serviceable to this point and put a lot of pressure on Flacco to make plays. I predict that he will eventually crumble under this pressure, much the way Roethlisberger did in his first AFC Championship game. Roethlisberger on the other hand has been here and done this before. He has played the Ravens before and he will be prepared.

These major factors will all play into the Steelers victory. Another important factor is the fact that the Ravens are tired. They have been playing for 18 straight weeks because they lost their bye week to Hurricane Gustav. They have a ton of injuries and players that are banged and bruised up. Suggs will go but he is hurt. Samari Rolle on the other hand will not be playing and the Eagles will miss him in that secondary.