Rob's Super Bowl Pick

I suppose I could keep this one short and sweet because as you know if you keep up with the blog, I picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl before the playoffs started. However, I have picked against the Cardinals in EVERY round of the playoffs this year. And needless to say, in every round I was wrong. I guess that means I have two options: (1) I pick the Steelers and they win and it looks like the no brainer because I picked the favorite and well I had to be right about the Cardinals at some point right or (2) Pick the underdog Cardinals thereby switching my original pick that has made it this far and risk diminishing the integrity of my blog by picking a team simply because they are the underdog and they have proven me wrong for three consecutive weeks.

I choose...option #1!!!!! To be quite honest with you, at this point I have developed quite a chip on my shoulder towards the Cards (that is despite the presence of former FSU greats: "The Quan" and D. Dockett or D squared as he has requested). I mean these guys were the sexy pick for the last few years and they just kept coming up short. After a while they became like the Saints, except they weren’t my home team so I felt quite comfortable laughing it up at their misgivings. Then there was the mistreatment of "The Quan" who by my account is the spark that led to the "New Cards" and this new era that they have no embarked upon (and the continued mistreatment of The Quan even after he has done his best Rod Tidwell impresronation . Combine those things with the fact that the Cards have now made a fool out of me by beating the Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles after I picked all three to take the Cards down and you have a team that I am genuinely starting not to like. But, once again for the purposes of maintaining the integrity of my blog I will get away from talking about who I do and do not like and get to the nitty gritty, the match-ups, the numbers and why I think the steelers will win and furthermore, how I think they will put it off (this factor is kind of important to me, if you look back at the Eagles-Cards game I feel like I had that one to a T except the Eagles defense took a little longer to stabalize and furthermore I didn’t account for a Joe Montana like drive by Kurt Warner in the 4th quarter and a blown call by the refs on the Eagles last drive). So here it goes as Rob Moore see it:

First, lets talk about the defenses. Recently, a lot of the Cards fans or bandwagoners have been attempting to make the argument that there defense is underrated and that the Steelers defense is not that much better. I will give you the first, however, I have to stop you on the second because the Cards D is no where near as good as the Steelers. Yes they have a ton of high draft picks back there, enough to make a college all star team (see: Rodgers-Cromartie, Berry, Rolle, Dockett, Dansby, and Branch) with the veteran Adrian Wilson, but c’mon the Steelers D they are not. These guys burst on to the scene in the playoffs by shutting down the Falcons run game and then picking off Delhomme 5 times, and finally by shutting down Westbrook. People are now comparing them to the Colts D from their Super Bowl run where the D didn’t seem to show up until it mattered. But here are the facts: The Colts kind of got lucky that year in that Peyton orchestrated a masterful come back against the Pats and then the D didn’t have much of a challenge in the Rex Grossman led Bears on a horribly rain drenched field in the Super Bowl. Furthermore, in Round 1 the Cards did what I had been waiting on everyone to do which was commit to stopping Turner and force the Rookie to beat you. In Round 2, the same thing. Force Delhomme to beat you. Simply put, post-op he just can’t, maybe Steve Smith can, but double him and Jake just can’t get it done anymore. Then looking at Round 3, Donovan put up 375, I repeat 375 and possibly would have posted a 400+ game and a victory if the refs wouldn’t have swallowed their whistle on the intentional PI on that 4th down pass. So bottom line is the Cards have a solid serviceable defense and they have been really good in the playoffs. However, the Steelers have a dominant defense. The type of defense that, much like a prize fighter, knocks you down and leaves you trying to remember where you are when you get up. The fact remains that the Cards have to be able to take the Steelers punches, because they will get hit. Whether its Boldin or Fitz catching a slant and getting introduced to Troy P. or Ryan Clark. Or its James Harrison leveling Warner, somebody will be hit and hit hard. The fact remains that they will have to be able to get up and swing back if they hope to win this game. Keeping with the fight comparison, I think they will be able to get up and keep swinging but eventually I see them getting knocked out.

Another thing that is bothering me is this idea that the Cardinals have learned to run the ball all of a sudden. No! The Cardinals have committed to run the ball. There is a difference. The Cardinals have dusted "The Edge" off (is it me or do the Cards if nothing else win the award for best nicknames in a SB) and up’ed his carries during the playoff. However, the Cards are avg’ing 3.1 yards per carry in the playoffs which is the same as the 3.1 yards per carry avg’ed during the season. That coupled with the fact that they haven’t faced a defense like the Steelers in the playoffs leads me to believe that their running game won’t be much of a factor in this game.
Some of the factors that I think will play a role in this game are (1) The injuries to Hines Ward and whatever injury there may be to Big Ben (they are being pretty tight lipped about his x-rays)- if one or both of these guys are severely slowed down or don’t play at all, it may be lights out for the Steelers (2) Don’t underestimate Wisenhunt’s vendetta/history with the Steelers- They went with Tomlin over him giving him incentive and furthermore the Steelers haven’t changed much since he was there so he may be able to make some good adjustments and (3) the unforseen injury– did you watch the Ravens game? The Steelers are blood thirsty, they try to take heads off. Look for the Cards to take some shots as well and a guy or two to not finish this one. For the sake of a good game I hope this doesn’t happen. (4) Last but not least, TURNOVERS are always an issue in big games. They change field position and lead to easy quick points. Big Ben has a propensity to turn it over when he is under pressure so look for this, but the same is true for Warner so it depends on what QB cracks under the pressure (the edge here definitely goes to Warner- see Big Ben’s first SB numbers).

So all in all, advantage Steelers. But this should be a good one. Not the Panthers Steelers but a good one none the less.